A selection of key research projects conducted by the Centre for Social and Economic Data Analytics. Click the title to expand for more information.

Asset Prices

Project Background

This broad research project deals with modelling asset prices and financial prices more generally. It includes analysis of interest rate yield curves. Also there are examination of burgeoning issues in exchange rate modelling and asset returns more generally.

Research Questions

How should we model yield curves? Do yield curves comove? Can risk factors be used to model carry returns in the FX market? What drives stock returns?

Methods

Time Series Forecasting. Cross Sectional Regressions. Bayesian Econometrics.

Project Participants

Joe Byrne (HWU); Boulis Ibrahim (HWU); Ryuta Sakemoto (Okayama University, Japan.  Keio University, Japan); Shuo Cao (Research Institute, Shenzhen Stock Exchange, China); Xiaoyu Zong (HWU).

UKRI Interdisciplinary Centre for Circular Chemical Economy

Project Background

Our Centre aims to generate a cross-disciplinary platform combining synergistic innovations in science/engineering with social scientists to comprehend the whole system industrial symbiosis and market/policy/incentive design.

Methods

The Core Research Programme is organised around three interconnected themes: 1) key technologies to enable olefin production from alternative/recycling wastes streams & design more reusable chemicals via advanced catalytic processes; 2) process integration, whole system analysis & value chain evaluation, and 3) Policy, society and finance. Xu is the Theme 3 leader to address non-technological barriers around business motivations, finance gaps, public awareness, policy to support businesses, the third sector and consumers.

Project Participants

Bing Xu (HWU-CSEDA), Umit Bititci (HWU), Loughborough University (Prof. Jin Xuan, PI), Cardiff, Imperial College London, Liverpool, Newcastle, and Sheffield.

Funding

EPSRC (EP/V011863/1), Jan 2021 – Dec 2024

BP Statistical Review of World Energy / Energy Outlook

Project Background 

HWU-CSEDA works closely with BP plc to produce their annual Statistical Review of World Energy and their regular 20-year Energy Outlook.  The Statistical Review of World Energy is the leading publication of its kind, providing a comprehensive database of world energy trends for use by industry and the general public.  The review has been described as "an amazing insight to the world's consumption and production of energy" (Guardian) and one of “the most widely respected and highly anticipated global energy publications” (Atlantic Council).

Methods

database management, statistical analysis

Project Participants

Mark Schaffer, Erkal Ersoy (HWU-CSEDA); BP plc Group Economics

Dates

Ongoing

GREEN-ICEs

Project Background

This project develops a novel integrated system for cold energy generation & storage that will contribute to the decarbonisation of the cooling sector in the UK & the global. Xu is leading on “Market Analysis and Techno-economic Evaluation”.

Project Participants

Bing Xu (HWU-CSEDA), University of Birmingham (Dr. Yongliang Li, PI), University of Glasgow

Funding

EPSRC, EP/T022701/1

Dates

Sep 2020 – Aug 2023
 

Oil Market

Project Background

Developments in the oil market underpin global economic growth. There is an expansive literature which examines key empirical questions in modelling the oil market. We seek to add to that literature by not only considering traditional fundamentals but also sentiment, expectations and uncertainty.

Research Questions

In addition to supply and demand factors, what drives oil prices? How should we model uncertainty in the oil market?

Methods

Empirical Methods. Bayesian Econometrics. Stochastic Volatility.  

Project Participants 

Joe Byrne (HWU); Erkal Ersoy (HWU); Bing Xu (HWU); Marco Lorusso (Newcastle University)

Funding

Carnegie Research Incentive Grant

Dynamic microsimulation modelling

Project Background

The COVID-19 crisis is continuing to have devastating consequences for the UK population, particularly the poorest segments of society.  Brexit will also have important economic consequences across the UK economy.  Microsimulation modelling enables detailed projections of the impacts of these developments.  For example, based on quarterly macroeconomic scenarios of economic growth, employment and wages from the NIESR’s NiGEM model, we provided quarterly projections of persons in the UK facing severe food poverty related to COVID-19.

Methods

econometric modelling, microsimulation modelling

Project Participants

Arnab Bhattacharjee (HWU-CSEDA), National Institute for Economic and Social Research (NIESR)

Funding

The Trussell Trust, Standard Life Foundation

Productive restoration in Colombian Amazon forest
Title

Building the foundation for a landscape-scale socioeconomic model for ‘productive restoration’ in the Colombian Amazon forest

Project Leader

Prof Thomas Wagner

Partner institution

SINCHI Amazonic Institute of Scientific Research. Colombia. 

Research Team

Dr Claudia Aravena and Prof Arnab Bhattacharjee (HWU-CSEDA)

Funder

Global Challenge Research Funding (GCRF)

Abstract

Colombia is implementing a difficult peace accord. Lack of governmental presence, unsustainable land use patterns, and land grabbing have caused a 40% increase in deforestation. We develop a new socioeconomic model concept for planning and predicting productive forest restoration, based on existing environmental and socioeconomic databases at SINCHI.

Methods

Econometric analysis, special econometrics, GIS