Trump’s climate retreat rekindles global resolve, not regression

In this week's Scotsman, Professor Mercedes Maroto-Valer reflects on the global implications of Donald Trump’s first 100 days in office, suggesting that his climate change scepticism may present an opportunity for the rest of the world.

It is now 100 days since Donald Trump was sworn in as the 47th President of the United States. From policy reversals to triggering a global trade war, his return to the White House has been nothing short of eventful.

Among his most striking, yet expected, early actions was a move that sent ripples through the international climate community. On January 20th, President Trump signed an Executive Order withdrawing the United States from the Paris Agreement, citing economic concerns and claiming the deal placed an unfair burden on the country. This, coupled with his decision to reverse many domestic climate regulations and introduce policies that favour fossil fuels, removed any ambiguity about his stance on climate change.

For many, this decision was a déjà vu moment—a repeat of his first presidency, when he announced a similar withdrawal in 2017. While environmentalists and world leaders condemned the US’s decision to remove itself from the Paris Agreement, a more pressing question remains: what has happened on a global scale since the US stepped away once more from the world’s foremost climate accord?

It’s worth noting that the world has moved on since 2017. We have seen the EU, UK and China take-up stronger policy positions to reduce their emissions including the EU Green Deal that aims to deliver the first climate-neutral continent by 2050. In global finance too we have seen a significant shift in favour of net zero with banks, investors, and insurers pricing in climate risk. Corporate climate pledges are now mainstream and prevalent in sectors like tech, consumer goods and finance.

Has Trump’s latest decision derailed global climate action, or has it galvanised renewed commitment?

In short, the world has not stood still. Contrary to doomsday predictions, global carbon markets have remained resilient, even against the backdrop of a global trade war.

Many nations have refused to row back on their emission commitments. If anything, Trump’s Paris withdrawal has reinforced the understanding that climate action must transcend the politics of any one leader or nation. While the United States plays an enormous role in global emissions, its departure from the Paris Agreement does not mean the world, or even his own country, will backtrack on decarbonisation. What we saw in 2017 was that many states, especially Democratic ones, took independent action to uphold climate commitments — and we may well see similar moves this time around. Despite President Trump’s forthright views on the climate crisis, it’s clear that market forces will have an enormous say in government policy, such as oil prices controlling drilling strategies.

President Trump is often characterised for his brash, unpredictable style of leadership. However, it would be a mistake to use his climate scepticism as a scapegoat for other countries failing to meet their own emission targets. The responsibility to act on climate change does not rest solely on the shoulders of the United States; it is a global imperative. The renewable energy market is an enormous employer worldwide – accounting for more than 16 million jobs, according to the Renewable Energy Institute. It is important that global leaders recognise this as an opportunity for tomorrow’s workforces and provide them with a platform where they can play their part in guarding against the effects of climate change.

While a fully committed United States would, of course, strengthen our collective efforts, the absence of its federal government from the Paris Agreement should not become an excuse for other nations to slow down or waiver in their commitments. Instead, this moment should be seen as an opportunity to reaffirm and accelerate global decarbonisation efforts. Europe and other major economies including China - who are committed to being carbon neutral by 2060 - have already demonstrated leadership in filling the void, increasing investment in renewables, green technologies, and industrial decarbonisation strategies.

For the UK, this moment is particularly significant. As a leader in industrial decarbonisation, the UK has a unique opportunity to set an example through policy innovation, investment in carbon capture technologies, and forging international partnerships that drive emissions reductions. Our industries, researchers, and policymakers must work together to ensure that net zero remains not just a long-term aspiration but the opportunity of the 21^st century.

The US' withdrawal from Paris leaves a gap, but it is not insurmountable. If every other country commits to accounting for the void left behind—roughly 10% of global emissions—then we can collectively compensate for this shortfall and continue progressing toward a sustainable future.

Even the current tariff war is unlikely to stop the global energy transition as the US’s share of the global cleantech trade is relatively small, and moreover, emerging economies are poised to dominate clean energy markets by 2030. Just in the last 10 years alone, developed economies have ceased to dominate solar and wind installations in favour of the renewable boom happening in emerging economies.

Trump’s decision may have been designed to shock the system, but it does not have to define the trajectory of global climate action. According to BloombergNEF, the global clean energy sector would be worth $10 trillion by 2050 with investments in clean energy reaching $1.8 trillion in 2023 – a record high. Now, more than ever, the world must stand united in its resolve to combat climate change—not because of the US withdrawal, but because global prosperity and sustainability stakes are too high to do otherwise.