Project title
Modelling Extreme Climate Change Impacts and Quantifying Uncertainty Propagation for Sustainable Rice Production in Semi-Arid Region of Northwestern Nigeria.
Project abstract
Rice production in the semi-arid region of Northwestern Nigeria is increasingly threatened by climate extremes such as prolonged droughts, erratic rainfall, heat stress, flooding, and land degradation. These events adversely affect crop growth, water availability, yield stability, and regional food security while increasing uncertainties in agricultural planning and policy development. This study examines the impacts of extreme climate change on sustainable rice production and quantifies uncertainty propagation across integrated climate, hydrological, and crop simulation models. The research combines downscaled regional climate projections, remote sensing data, hydrological analysis, and crop modelling to evaluate future rice productivity under multiple climate scenarios. Extreme climate indices, including temperature anomalies, rainfall intensity, dry spell frequency, and evapotranspiration rates, are assessed alongside uncertainty propagation techniques such as Monte Carlo simulation, sensitivity analysis, and ensemble modelling. Findings are expected to improve the reliability of climate adaptation strategies and support climate-smart interventions for resilient and sustainable rice production in Northwestern Nigeria.