A selection of key research projects conducted by the Centre for Social and Economic Data Analytics. Click the title to expand for more information.
This broad research project deals with modelling asset prices and financial prices more generally. It includes analysis of interest rate yield curves. Also there are examination of burgeoning issues in exchange rate modelling and asset returns more generally.
How should we model yield curves? Do yield curves comove? Can risk factors be used to model carry returns in the FX market? What drives stock returns?
Time Series Forecasting. Cross Sectional Regressions. Bayesian Econometrics.
Joe Byrne (HWU); Boulis Ibrahim (HWU); Ryuta Sakemoto (Okayama University, Japan. Keio University, Japan); Shuo Cao (Research Institute, Shenzhen Stock Exchange, China); Xiaoyu Zong (HWU).
UKRI Interdisciplinary Centre for Circular Chemical Economy
Our Centre aims to generate a cross-disciplinary platform combining synergistic innovations in science/engineering with social scientists to comprehend the whole system industrial symbiosis and market/policy/incentive design. The Core Research Programme is organised around three interconnected themes: 1) key technologies to enable olefin production from alternative/recycling wastes streams & design more reusable chemicals via advanced catalytic processes; 2) process integration, whole system analysis & value chain evaluation, and 3) Policy, society and finance. Xu is the Theme 3 leader to address non-technological barriers around business motivations, finance gaps, public awareness, policy to support businesses, the third sector and consumers.
Bing Xu (HWU-CSEDA), Umit Bititci (HWU), Loughborough University (Prof. Jin Xuan, PI), Cardiff, Imperial College London, Liverpool, Newcastle, and Sheffield.
EPSRC (EP/V011863/1), Jan 2021 – Dec 2024
BP Statistical Review of World Energy / Energy Outlook
HWU-CSEDA works closely with BP plc to produce their annual Statistical Review of World Energy and their regular 20-year Energy Outlook. The Statistical Review of World Energy is the leading publication of its kind, providing a comprehensive database of world energy trends for use by industry and the general public. The review has been described as "an amazing insight to the world's consumption and production of energy" (Guardian) and one of “the most widely respected and highly anticipated global energy publications” (Atlantic Council).
Mark Schaffer, Erkal Ersoy (HWU-CSEDA); BP plc Group Economics
database management, statistical analysis
This project develops a novel integrated system for cold energy generation & storage that will contribute to the decarbonisation of the cooling sector in the UK & the global. Xu is leading on “Market Analysis and Techno-economic Evaluation”.
Bing Xu (HWU-CSEDA), University of Birmingham (Dr. Yongliang Li, PI), University of Glasgow
Sep 2020 – Aug 2023
Developments in the oil market underpin global economic growth. There is an expansive literature which examines key empirical questions in modelling the oil market. We seek to add to that literature by not only considering traditional fundamentals but also sentiment, expectations and uncertainty.
In addition to supply and demand factors, what drives oil prices? How should we model uncertainty in the oil market?
Empirical Methods. Bayesian Econometrics. Stochastic Volatility.
Joe Byrne (HWU); Erkal Ersoy (HWU); Bing Xu (HWU); Marco Lorusso (Newcastle University)
Carnegie Research Incentive Grant
Dynamic microsimulation modelling
The COVID-19 crisis is continuing to have devastating consequences for the UK population, particularly the poorest segments of society. Brexit will also have important economic consequences across the UK economy. Microsimulation modelling enables detailed projections of the impacts of these developments. For example, based on quarterly macroeconomic scenarios of economic growth, employment and wages from the NIESR’s NiGEM model, we provided quarterly projections of persons in the UK facing severe food poverty related to COVID-19.
econometric modelling, microsimulation modelling
Arnab Bhattacharjee (HWU-CSEDA), National Institute for Economic and Social Research (NIESR)
The Trussell Trust, Standard Life Foundation
Productive restoration in Colombian Amazon forest
Building the foundation for a landscape-scale socioeconomic model for ‘productive restoration’ in the Colombian Amazon forest
Prof Thomas Wagner
SINCHI Amazonic Institute of Scientific Research. Colombia.
Dr Claudia Aravena and Prof Arnab Bhattacharjee (HWU-CSEDA)
Global Challenge Research Funding (GCRF)
Colombia is implementing a difficult peace accord. Lack of governmental presence, unsustainable land use patterns, and land grabbing have caused a 40% increase in deforestation. We develop a new socioeconomic model concept for planning and predicting productive forest restoration, based on existing environmental and socioeconomic databases at SINCHI.
Econometric analysis, special econometrics, GIS