Natural and man-made hazards pose an increasing threat to both the environment and society. Considering, and building in the capacity for resilience to disasters is essential for sustainable development but relies on the ability to accurately estimate risks.

The process of risk assessment/uncertainty quantification is tightly-coupled to the predictability of the physical phenomena leading to the natural or human-made hazards. Understanding and extending the limits of predictability within the computer models used in the process is essential for reliable risk assessment.

New innovative techniques are needed to improve these models and enhance accuracy and mitigation within this sector. There is also a need to extend this research into natural risks such as volcanic, seismic and tsunami risks and those associated with extreme weather conditions. There are also man-made risks to related to the energy industry to consider such as subsidence, contamination and offshore drilling.

The Lyell Centre provides a research space in which collaborators from Heriot-Watt University and the BGS can tackle different topics related to geo-hazards, flood risks and risk assessment of engineering systems. With this collaboration there is scope for developing modern techniques for assessing the predictability of computer models for large scale coupled physical systems and the associated high-performance computing capabilities.